Journal cover Journal topic
Biogeosciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic
Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-506
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-506
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 08 Jan 2020

Submitted as: research article | 08 Jan 2020

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Biogeosciences (BG).

Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers

Thomas L. Frölicher1,2, Luca Ramseyer1, Christoph C. Raible1,2, Keith B. Rodgers3,4, and John Dunne5 Thomas L. Frölicher et al.
  • 1Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, 3012, Switzerland
  • 2Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, 3012, Switzerland
  • 3Centre for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, South Korea
  • 4Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea
  • 5NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA

Abstract. Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems and the socio-economic systems that may depend upon them. Temperature, pH, oxygen (O2) and net primary production (NPP) are commonly considered to be important marine ecosystem drivers, but the potential predictability of these drivers is largely unknown. Here, we use a comprehensive Earth system model within a perfect modelling framework to show that all four ecosystem drivers are potentially predictable on global scales and at the surface up to 3 years in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Maximum potential predictability (> 10 years) is found at the surface for temperature and O2 in the Southern Ocean and for temperature, O2 and pH in the North Atlantic. This is tied to ocean overturning structures with memory or inertia with enhanced predictability in winter. Additionally, these four drivers are highly potentially predictable in the Arctic Ocean at surface. In contrast, minimum predictability is simulated for NPP (< 1 years) in the Southern Ocean. Potential predictability for temperature, O2 and pH increases with depth to more than 10 years below the thermocline, except in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean, where predictability is also three to five years in the thermocline. This study indicating multi-year (at surface) and decadal (subsurface) potential predictability for multiple ecosystem drivers is intended as a foundation to foster broader community efforts in developing new predictions of marine ecosystem drivers.

Thomas L. Frölicher et al.
Interactive discussion
Status: open (until 19 Feb 2020)
Status: open (until 19 Feb 2020)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
[Subscribe to comment alert] Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Thomas L. Frölicher et al.
Thomas L. Frölicher et al.
Viewed  
Total article views: 255 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
197 57 1 255 2 0
  • HTML: 197
  • PDF: 57
  • XML: 1
  • Total: 255
  • BibTeX: 2
  • EndNote: 0
Views and downloads (calculated since 08 Jan 2020)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 08 Jan 2020)
Viewed (geographical distribution)  
Total article views: 242 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 241 with geography defined and 1 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Cited  
Saved  
No saved metrics found.
Discussed  
No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 18 Jan 2020
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems. Here we show that on global scales, marine ecosystem drivers such as temperature, pH, O2 and NPP are potentially predictable three (at surface) and more than ten years (subsurface) in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Our study suggests that physical-biogeochemical forecast systems have considerable potential for use in marine resource management.
Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems. Here we show that on global...
Citation