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Biogeosciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-402
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-402
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 08 Oct 2018

Research article | 08 Oct 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Biogeosciences (BG).

Trend analysis of the airborne fraction and sink rate of anthropogenically released CO2

Mikkel Bennedsen1,3, Eric Hillebrand1,3, and Siem Jan Koopman2,3 Mikkel Bennedsen et al.
  • 1Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, Fuglesangs Allé, 4 8210 Aarhus V, Denmark
  • 2Department of Econometrics, School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
  • 3Center for Research in Econometric Analysis of Time Series (CREATES), Aarhus University, Fuglesangs Allé, 4 8210 Aarhus V, Denmark

Abstract. Is the fraction of anthropogenically released CO2 that remains in the atmosphere increasing? Is the rate at which the ocean and land sinks take up CO2 from the atmosphere decreasing? We analyze these questions by means of a statistical dynamic multivariate model from which we estimate the unobserved trend processes together with the parameters that govern them. By assuming a balanced global carbon budget, we obtain more than one data series to measure the same object (for example, the airborne fraction). Incorporating these additional data into the dynamic multivariate model in effect increases the number of available observations, thus improving the reliability of parameter estimates. We find no statistical evidence of an increasing airborne fraction but we do find statistical evidence of a decreasing sink rate. We infer that the efficiency of the sinks to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere is decreasing at approximately 0.54% per year.

Mikkel Bennedsen et al.
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Mikkel Bennedsen et al.
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Is the fraction of anthropogenically released CO2 that remains in the atmosphere increasing? Is the rate at which the ocean and land sinks take up CO2 from the atmosphere decreasing? We analyze these questions by means of a statistical dynamic multivariate model from which we estimate the unobserved trend processes together with the parameters that govern them. We find no statistical evidence of an increasing airborne fraction but we do find statistical evidence of a decreasing sink rate.
Is the fraction of anthropogenically released CO2 that remains in the atmosphere increasing? Is...
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