Received: 07 Sep 2018 – Accepted for review: 02 Oct 2018 – Discussion started: 08 Oct 2018
Abstract. Is the fraction of anthropogenically released CO2 that remains in the atmosphere increasing? Is the rate at which the ocean and land sinks take up CO2 from the atmosphere decreasing? We analyze these questions by means of a statistical dynamic multivariate model from which we estimate the unobserved trend processes together with the parameters that govern them. By assuming a balanced global carbon budget, we obtain more than one data series to measure the same object (for example, the airborne fraction). Incorporating these additional data into the dynamic multivariate model in effect increases the number of available observations, thus improving the reliability of parameter estimates. We find no statistical evidence of an increasing airborne fraction but we do find statistical evidence of a decreasing sink rate. We infer that the efficiency of the sinks to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere is decreasing at approximately 0.54 % per year.
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Is the fraction of anthropogenically released CO2 that remains in the atmosphere increasing? Is the rate at which the ocean and land sinks take up CO2 from the atmosphere decreasing? We analyze these questions by means of a statistical dynamic multivariate model from which we estimate the unobserved trend processes together with the parameters that govern them. We find no statistical evidence of an increasing airborne fraction but we do find statistical evidence of a decreasing sink rate.
Is the fraction of anthropogenically released CO2 that remains in the atmosphere increasing? Is...