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Linking an economic model for European agriculture with a mechanistic model to estimate nitrogen losses from cropland soil in Europe
1European Commission – Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Italy
2University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics, Bonn, Germany
3Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA
*now at: Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy, Department of Technology Assessment and Environment, Stuttgart, Germany
Abstract. For the comprehensive assessment of the policy impact on greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural soils both socio-economic aspects and the environmental heterogeneity of the landscape are important factors that must be considered. We developed a modelling framework that links the large-scale economic model for agriculture CAPRI with the bio-geochemistry model DNDC to simulate greenhouse gas fluxes, carbon stock changes and the nitrogen budget of agricultural soils in Europe. The framework allows the ex-ante simulation of agricultural or agri-environmental policy impacts on wide range of environmental problems such as climate change (greenhouse gas emissions), air pollution and groundwater pollution. Those environmental impacts can be analysed in the context of economic and social indicators as calculated by the economic model. The methodology consists in four steps (i) the definition of appropriate calculation units that can be considered as homogeneous in terms of economic behaviour and environmental response; (ii) downscaling of regional agricultural statistics and farm management information from a CAPRI simulation run into the spatial calculation units; (iii) setting up of environmental model scenarios and model runs; and finally (iv) aggregating results for interpretation. We show first results of the nitrogen budget in cropland for the area of fourteen countries of the European Union. These results, in terms of estimated nitrogen fluxes, must still be considered as illustrative as needs for improvements in input data (e.g. the soil map) and management data (yield estimates) have been identified and will be the focus of future work. Nevertheless, we highlight inter-dependencies between farmer's choices of land uses and the environmental impact of different cultivation systems.
Discussion Paper (PDF, 3399 KB) Interactive Discussion (Closed, 5 Comments) Final Revised Paper (BG)
Citation: Leip, A., Marchi, G., Koeble, R., Kempen, M., Britz, W., and Li, C.: Linking an economic model for European agriculture with a mechanistic model to estimate nitrogen losses from cropland soil in Europe, Biogeosciences Discuss., 4, 2215-2278, 2007. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager
