Forward modeling analysis of regional scale tree-ring patterns around the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, Northwest China X. Gou1,2, F. Zhou1,2, Y. Zhang3, Q. Chen1,2, and J. Zhang1,2 1Collaborative Innovation Centre for Arid Environments and Climate Change, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China 2Key laboratory of Western China's Environmental systems (MOE), Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China 3National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081, China
Received: 14 Jan 2013 – Revised: 04 May 2013 – Accepted: 21 May 2013 – Published: 19 Jun 2013
Abstract. The process-based Vaganov–Shashkin (VS) model was used to simulate regional patterns of
climate-tree growth relationships linking daily length, temperature and precipitation from
meteorological data (AD 1957–2000) over the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP). The results
exhibit that the leading principle component of the hypothetical growth curves is broadly
consistent with that of the actual tree-ring chronologies, demonstrating the interpretability of
the simulations as an accurate representation of the climatic controls on tree growth of Qilian
Juniper. Output from this model both agrees well with the statistical relationships between
tree-ring growth and climate factors as well as observational physiological behavior,
i.e. precipitation in June acts as the most contributing role in annual ring formation of Qilian
Juniper over the northeastern TP. The non-stationary and nonlinear response of tree growth to
climate variability has important implications for calibration of tree-ring records for
paleoclimate reconstructions and prediction for forest carbon sequestration.
Citation: Gou, X., Zhou, F., Zhang, Y., Chen, Q., and Zhang, J.: Forward modeling analysis of regional scale tree-ring patterns around the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, Northwest China, Biogeosciences Discuss., 10, 9969-9988, doi:10.5194/bgd-10-9969-2013, 2013.