Biogeosciences Discuss., 10, 4157-4191, 2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed
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This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Biogeosciences (BG). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in BG.
Carbon density and anthropogenic land use influences on net land-use change emissions
S. J. Smith and A. Rothwell
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA

Abstract. We examine historical and future land-use emissions using a simple mechanistic carbon-cycle model with regional and ecosystem specific parameterizations. Our central estimate of net terrestrial land-use change emissions, exclusive of climate feedbacks, is 250 Gt C over the last three hundred years. This estimate is most sensitive to assumptions for pre-industrial forest and soil carbon densities. We also find that estimates are sensitive to the treatment of crop and pasture lands. These sensitivities also translate into differences in future terrestrial uptake in the RCP4.5 land-use scenario. This estimate of future uptake is lower than the native values from the GCAM integrated assessment model result due to lower net reforestation in the RCP4.5 gridded land-use data product.

Citation: Smith, S. J. and Rothwell, A.: Carbon density and anthropogenic land use influences on net land-use change emissions, Biogeosciences Discuss., 10, 4157-4191, doi:10.5194/bgd-10-4157-2013, 2013.
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